Regime cycles and political change in African autocracies

ABSTRACT This article applies a regime cycle framework to understand patterns of change and continuity in African competitive autocracies. We observe that autocracies is rarely the result actions carried out by rebels, opposition leaders or popular masses substantially altering structure power. Instead, they are more frequently senior cadres, resulting controlled reshuffles argue such shifts best explained through cyclical logic elite collective action consisting accommodation consolidation, ultimately leading fragmentation crisis. These dynamics indicate stage leader-elite relationships at given time, suggest when regimes may likely expand, contract, purge fracture. that, acknowledging which its elites dominant, we can gauge likelihood as well potential success change. Our finally applied recent across Africa.